Once viewed as routine political gridlock, the latest government shutdown is now being felt in the boardrooms of Northern Virginia. Business leaders across the region are reporting slower performance, waning confidence, and rising concern about the months ahead.
NVC, in partnership with Pinkston, has released the Q4 NVC/Pinkston Business Leader Survey. This survey captured the perspective of 120 CEOs, corporate executives, and business owners operating across Northern Virginia, including leaders from Fortune 500 companies.
“Our 2025 Business Leader Surveys have demonstrated that federal policy decisions, such as the government shutdown, tariff policies, and restructuring of the federal government, have a tremendous impact on the Northern Virginia business community,” said Julie Coons, NVC President and CEO. “And as goes Northern Virginia, so goes the region.”
Designed to inform policymakers and the broader business community, these findings highlight trends shaping economic growth and competitiveness across the Greater Washington region.
This quarter’s survey reflects the collaborative strength of a regional coalition representing seven business organizations: NVC, Arlington Chamber of Commerce, Central Fairfax Chamber of Commerce, Falls Church Chamber of Commerce, Loudoun County Chamber of Commerce, Northern Virginia Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, and Prince William County Chamber of Commerce.
The government shutdown has emerged as a top concern for Northern Virginia businesses. 43% of respondents report that the shutdown is contributing to a decline in company performance, while 44% say it has had no impact, and 13% note it is driving business growth. When asked to identify the most significant external challenges facing their operations, business leaders cited the government shutdown (65%) as the most impactful, followed by federal agency layoffs (52%), inflation (52%), tariffs (41%), workforce availability (28%), and federal procurement policies (28%).
“We continue to see business leaders who are more optimistic about their own companies than they are about the regional and national economy,” said D.J. Jordan, Senior Vice President at Pinkston. “In July, Northern Virginia business leaders were hopeful that the end of DOGE and a favorable tax and regulatory environment would benefit their bottom lines. However, the government shutdown, ongoing tariff negotiations, and stubborn inflation are causing businesses to become more pessimistic and pause investments.”
Economic outlook sentiment shifted notably in Q4. Nearly half of business leaders (48%) believe the Northern Virginia economy will decline over the next six months, compared to 26% who expect it to remain steady and 26% who anticipate growth. This represents a negative shift from the July survey, when only 35% expected a decline and 39% anticipated growth.
While rising pessimism signals a challenging road ahead, NVC is not standing still. Through our NOVA Roadmap initiative, we’re charting the path forward, with four bold goals to reinvent the economy, cultivate affordability for our workforce, attract sustained investment, and tell our region’s powerful story.
